Rob Minto

Sport, data, ideas

Page 4 of 39

Sport Geek #73: wipe clean, F=ma, and Sochi success

Unquestionably, the most interesting story from a sports stats perspective this week is the proposal to erase lots of athletics world records. This has been an idea that has been kicked around for a while, but not taken that seriously, until now.

Of course, under any set of reset rules, someone will lose out. Currently Paula Radcliffe is making a lot of noise, and you might see her point. However, I think it’s a great idea, and here’s why.

First, the current marquee records of the women’s 100m, 200m and 400m are a total sham. They were set in the drug-fuelled years before serious testing took place – pre 1989. Everyone knows they are a joke, and the inability of women to challenge them since should be seen as a sign of strength in drug testing, not weakness. That means though, that the true world record holders, whoever they are, are being denied glory and financial reward. I looked into this for my book, Sports Geek. The problem can be summed up as: Flo-Jo.

Second, athletes should remember that records are temporary, medals are permanent. Lots of runners have been delighted to set world records, but know that someday it goes. (I suspect Radcliffe’s determination to hold on to her marathon record is in part due to her inability to win Olympic gold. The title of her website is “Paula Radcliffe – Marathon world record holder”). The point is: it’s a privilege, not a right, to be the holder of a world record.

Lastly, if a couple of legit records get wiped, maybe that’s acceptable collateral damage. Fans and commentators will know the true mark, as will competitors. Just as sprinters know that the women’s current records are a sham. Wouldn’t it be better to inject some honesty into the game, for fans and competitors alike?

Read more: Sean Ingle in the Guardian.

FOOTBALL

Manchester United are unlucky – FiveThirtyEight crunch the numbers to show how.

F1

When your biggest star dies, someone or something has to take the blame. Vice looks at Senna, 20 years on.

NFL

“[American] Football as we know it is done, because the lawyers are here.” SBNation looks at a sport in turmoil, the equation that can’t be beaten (F=ma if you must know), and what the future might hold.

BASEBALL

It’s taken more than a century but Major League Baseball finally has its first African player. Quartz explains.

TENNIS

Welcome back, Maria? SportingIntelligence looks at the doping dilemma, and also Pep Guardiola (who failed tests for nandrolone, which I didn’t know before)

BOXING

Anthony Joshua: he the man. The Economist asks if boxing’s heavyweight division will get a revival?

OLYMPICS

Where’s the tumbleweed disaster? City Journal looks at Sochi, the Olympics that didn’t turn to dust.

That is all.

Sport Geek #72: Qi/Za, the quadruple, and switching places

A brief break – hols and all that – so here are a few things from April to get your chops around.

FOOTBALL

Champions-strugglers-champions (elect) vs Strugglers-champions-strugglers: the Economist looks at how Chelsea and Leicester keep swapping places.  Plus the Guardian shows how British managers are overrated by English clubs – and the stats back it up.

SCRABBLE

Yup, Scrabble. A FiveThirtyEight dive into how Qi and Za have changed the game.

RUGBY

The Guardian on why the Lions selection process is almost as tough as the tour.

SKATING

Quartz on the physics behind figure skating’s most difficult jump – the quadruple.

NFL

The Ringer on how to draft a quarterback.

TENNIS

ESPN on how the Roger Federer revival couldn’t have come at a better time.

Sport Geek #71: Raiders move, Wembley at 10, and Partridge F1

Let’s crack on, shall we?

RAIDERS ON THE MOVE

You might have heard that the Oakland Raiders are going to become the Las Vegas Raiders. This might seem strange after a great season with a great new quarterback (Derek Carr), but there’s a few reasons why. Number one, as ever: money. Forbes does the numbers. Here’s the four key things you need to know.

ALAN AND F1

I love this. The headline says it all: ​”A worryingly deep dive into Alan Partridge’s enduring love affair with Formula 1“.

WEMBLEY AT 10

Of course it’s not good value. Then again, the Raiders new stadium will be 20,000 fewer seats for $1.9bn…

FOOTBALL

José Mourinho thinks it’s getting harder to buy success. Is he right?

Syria: Football on the frontline. A great piece from the BBC.

How to save a penalty: the truth about football’s toughest shot.

GLOBAL!

Forget the NFL, the 39th game and all that – Rugby league’s Toronto Wolfpack are the first transatlantic sports team.

TENNIS

Australian bad boys – unlike Tomic, at least there’s hope for Kyrgios.

That will be all.

Sport Geek #70: some radical ideas

If this week has a theme, it’s some pretty outlandish ideas. Here we go…

Crazy idea #1) Should we relegate half the Premier League each season? It would certainly liven things up a bit. Mid-table mediocrity begone! Weirdly, as the Guardian points out, it’s a idea that’s been around for a while… (since 1926)

Crazy idea #2) Should we make hooliganism a sport? An idea that has come out of… Russia.

Good idea #1) Let’s simplify and speed up golf.

Good idea #2) Why not create an Olympic city to stop the financial ruin of hosting the Games? Or perhaps create a pool of 5-10 cities that rotate. Less waste!

Interesting point #1) Football managers have way less influence than you think. Ranieri wasn’t a genius, and nor should he have been sacked.

Interesting point #2) Sports writing (esp in the US) is a liberal profession. How did that happen?

Interesting point #3) Wimbledon’s football rebirth is, arguably, the greatest sports story (n)ever told.

Adios

Sport Geek #69: snakes, Trump and pop culture

FOOTBALL
Where have Leicester been all season? They’ve played badly, got rid of the manager, and then beat Liverpool 3-1. So are the players really snakes? Perhaps not. The Guardian’s Fiver email picks apart the narrative brilliantly .

RUGBY
What the hell was that? Italy have either betrayed the game, or been brilliantly clever. They still lost though.

POP CULTURE REFERENCES
He _____’d him: sometimes one basketball player does something to another that can only be described with an extremely specific pop culture reference. Such as these.

GOLF
Should golfers play with Trump? Most seem not to care too much about him being, you know, a fascist.

RICH
LeBron James is now ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo on Forbes SportsMoney Index.

NFL
Who to blame for the Patriots’ insufferable success?

CRICKET
T20 is playing the data game.

RUGBY LEAGUE
Forget the NFL or Premier League getting an overseas team – rugby League is way ahead of you there.

Ciao.

Sport Geek #68: Patriot games, Cook chat, and chess drugs

SUPER BOWL

You might hate the Patriots (with all that winning and cheating) but on the field, they did something quite special. So, where next? First, what must teams do to beat them. Second, think about a few things Atlanta could have done differently, and it’s a Falcons win. Third – let’s just go back and bask in the records set. Amazing. And lastly, this was NOT anything like Trump’s victory. Move on.

CRICKET

So long, Alastair Cook
You were very good at batting
And captaining England
But were quite dull at chatting.

300. In T20. Seriously?

FOOTBALL

Post-match interviews. Enough already?

CHESS

PEDs, chess-style.

Cheers.

 

Sport Geek #67: SB LI, 35 is the new 25, and trusting the process

This week is divided into three sections. One is looking forward to the Super Bowl. One is looking back at the Australian Open. And the other is on finance / tanking. Happy reading. ps buy the book if you haven’t yet.

SUPER BOWL 51 – A READER

If you’ve not followed this season in the NFL, it breaks down like this. The Atlanta Falcons have a really good offense – ie they score a lot of points, and have the stand-out receiver in the NFL in Julio Jones. Check out his highlight reel – it’s impressive. However, Atlanta are not an experienced team in the playoffs, and they are up against the New England Patriots. The Pats still have Tom Brady as quarterback, are coached by the best of all time, Bill Belichick, and simply put, this is what they do. Brady already has four Super Bowl wins to his name.

There are plenty of guides to the game out there – so here are some other angles. One – the NFL doesn’t want to talk Trump. Two – you might not like Tom Brady, but the Patriots are great because he takes a big pay cut. And three – the Patriots might never have become so good if it wasn’t for the so-called Tuck rule – which changed the course of the snow-game vs the Raiders back in 2002.

Can the Falcons do it? If Matt Ryan doesn’t throw an interception….

TENNIS – AUSTRALIAN OPEN WRAP UP

Federer beat Nadal and Serena beat Venus in the finals. Just think about that for a moment. Now start here – 50 parting shots from Jon Wertheim on SI. Does Federer’s win settle the “greatest of all time” debate? Maybe… Certainly few are arguing against Serena being the GOAT.

But this isn’t just about the greatest – it’s a triumph against age, a battle won vs time’s slowing spiral.  Here’s to the 35-year-olds.

MONEY

Look at net spend – now let’s give Tottenham some credit.

Hinkie, tanking and the 76ers. Trust the process is a great mantra. If it works – and it seems it might.

See ya.

Sport Geek #66: pioneers, tanking, and Fergie Time

Nothing scientific per se about this, but the current Australian Open is incredible: six of the eight semifinalists are over 30. That may be a first, or it must be very rare. And we are just four results away from a possible Federer-Nadal, Williams-Williams finals weekend. Chew on that.

Meanwhile…

CRICKET

Two pioneers, two very different stories. Tymal Mills: the accidental T20 specialist. And Rachael Heyhoe Flint, the reluctant feminist who did so much for women’s cricket.

TENNIS

Attack attack attaaacckk! Fortune is favouring the bold at the Australian Open.

BASKETBALL

A good read, and a fun game: tanking.

FOOTBALL

Fergie Time still exists!

Valencia is on the brink of collapse.

F1

I’m not so sure about the ‘loved’ bit about Bernie Ecclestone.

That’s it – ciao.

Sport Geek #65: over-achievers, stupid fans, and backpage metrics

Main thought: I’m loving the NFL this year.

RUGBY

A very statty take on which country is the biggest over-achiever in the 6 Nations.

F1

Don’t listen to the fans! What the hell do they know?

FOOTBALL

Where did it all go wrong, Pep?

NFL

Keep on yelling. It works.

How to lose quarterbacks and alienate people.

Well done Los Angeles: you now have two terrible teams.

Stay classy, San Diego.

BASEBALL

I love this – contract negotiations using backpage metrics.

That’s it. Get reading…

There’s always my book too, if you haven’t already…

In (partial) defence of Fifa’s 48-team World Cup plan

The format of 32 has proven to be the perfect formula from all perspectives…

So said the EFA. But not quite all perspectives, and certainly not the one which counts most: Fifa’s.

The World Cup has been 32 teams since 1998. It starts with 8 groups of 4, top two go to the knockout round. It’s mathematically ideal and beautiful in every way.

So why change it? You can read good summaries on the BBC, Guardian, and also the Mail on typical jingoistic form (Burkina Faso but not Scotland!). The best analysis is here on the Economist. But aside from the politics and possible extra cash, is it so awful to destroy the perfect 32-game Cup?

Yes and no. Yes, for all the reasons linked to above. Yes because it makes the structure far less neat. No, because more teams from smaller nations is an admirable motive. So let’s look at the structure.

Fifa is suggesting 16 groups of 3, top two to knock out. That means two group games for each team, rather than three; and five knock out matches rather than four through to the final.

The initial negative reaction is based on three unavoidable things: fewer big teams will meet at the group stage; three in a group means final group matches might result in boring draws if both teams are through to the next stage; and fewer group matches means 16 teams get only two matches before heading home, rather than the current minimum of three.

Let’s unpick each one. Continue reading

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