Was the violent invasion of the US Capitol on 6th January this year a coup? It certainly had the hallmarks of a coup, even it it might be expedient for politicians to refer to it as insurrection.
Because a coup is distinctly un-American, right?
Well, up until now.
The Cline Center of University of Illinois run the Coup D’état Project, and their data reveal a story of coups through the last 75 years.
The history of coups in the post-war period is dominated by personalities – strongmen such as Idi Amin and Col. Gaddafi. But those are the winners – leaders who took power and held it for many years.
So how successful are coups? According to the Project’s data, coups are a less than 50:50 shot – they are successful 45 per cent of the time.
The coup heyday was the 1960s and 70s, in the post-War, post-colonial settlement period where independent statehood was still nascent in many parts of the world. And although Latin America has a reputation for coups, fuelled by spy movies, sub-Saharan Africa is the most coup-prone region.
Since 1980 there has been a move to relative stability – the number of coups has declined, with the 2010s having the fewest of any decade. The last ten years has seen only 17 successful coups, with 30 attempted or conspired.
![](https://minto.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/coups-per-year-1024x624.jpg)
Some other insights… since 1945:
- Although Sub-Saharan Africa is the most coup-heavy region, Bolivia is the most coup-prone nation with 37, including 16 successful coups.
- Coups are more of a Spring / Autumn thing. November is the month with most coups, closely followed by October, April and March.
- 1975 was the busiest year for coups with 32. 1979 was the most successful with 18 out of 22.
Anyway, here is the visual history – click for the the full size image.
![](https://minto.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/coups-chart-v2.jpg)
So was 6th Jan a coup? The Cline center say… maybe.